What Makes a Great Affiliate on TikTok Shop? Inside the Metrics that Predict Performance

What Makes a Great Affiliate on TikTok Shop?
Inside the Metrics that Predict Performance

At allymatic, we’ve built best-in-class AI technology to match brands with high-performing affiliates on platforms like TikTok Shop and YouTube Shopping. Our system leverages millions of data points to microsegment creators and predict not just who will respond to a brand, but who will actually convert views into sales.

In building our models, we’ve had the chance to analyze over 1.5 million creators and examine how 35 different affiliate characteristics relate to performance. Along the way, we discovered a number of insights that challenge conventional wisdom in influencer marketing. This article shares a few of those findings, with the goal of helping brands navigate the world of video shopping more effectively.

The Analysis Framework

To derive these insights, we conducted a cross-correlation analysis across 35 affiliate traits. The raw results painted a complex web of relationships. To make it easier to digest, we simplified in two ways:

1. We narrowed our focus to the 13 most insightful variables.

2. We highlighted only relationships with Cramer V coefficients (a measure of correlation) above 0.6.

3. 
   

Correlation heatmap of 35 affiliate metrics. Strong correlations (Cramer V > 0.6) appear in yellow and red. Notably, traditional influencer metrics (grey zone) show weak ties to performance, while video shopping-specific metrics like GMV per buyer (light blue zone) strongly correlate with units sold.

Five Key Learnings About Video Shopping Affiliates

1. The traditional influencer playbook doesn’t translate.

Look at the grey area in Exhibit 1: these variables include follower count, percent female audience, audience age, average views, engagement rate, and likes. Despite being the backbone of current influencer selection and pricing models, none of these factors meaningfully correlate with units sold. For instance, the correlation between follower count and units sold is just 0.1—statistically insignificant. Yet many brands continue to prioritize these markers, leading to inflated spend and underwhelming ROI.

2. The single most predictive metric: GMV per buyer.

The light blue area in the chart includes the video shopping-specific metrics that truly matter. When it comes to forecasting affiliate performance on TikTok Shop, GMV per buyer stands out as the strongest predictor of units sold. Why? Because it reflects more than conversion — it signals both sales efficiency and audience quality.

Unlike follower count or view count, which are passive indicators of reach, GMV per buyer measures active, monetizable engagement. It shows how well a creator drives purchases and how much their audience spends. A high GMV per buyer indicates not just influence, but the ability to generate real, high-value transactions.

This has practical implications. Brands should prioritize creators with a proven history of strong GMV per buyer—even if their follower base is smaller. These creators may not go viral, but they reliably move product. It also surfaces “hidden performers”—mid-tier creators who might be overlooked by traditional models but consistently deliver outsized sales results.

3. Specialized behavior drives results.

Two other high-impact metrics are product amount (the number of different products a creator has promoted) and video amount (the total number of shoppable videos posted). These are behavioral indicators of commitment to video shopping. Affiliates who post frequently and promote multiple products tend to have the experience and focus needed to drive real sales.

4. Higher-ticket sellers outperform.

We found a meaningful correlation between average product price and units sold. High-performing affiliates are often able to move premium products or bundles—a sign of salesmanship and the trust they’ve built with their audience.

5. Commission rate matters—and signals value.

Top-performing affiliates charge higher commission rates. This isn’t surprising, but it often clashes with brand hesitations around margin compression. At allymatic, we tailor commission offers based on potential impact, knowing that underpaying great creators often means losing them—and paying more elsewhere in the funnel (via samples or paid media) to make up for it.

A Different Game Requires a Different Playbook

These findings point to a clear conclusion: the attributes that define great video shopping creators are fundamentally different from those of traditional influencers. Brands that continue to over-index on legacy metrics like follower size or average views are missing the opportunity to build true sales-driving partnerships.

At allymatic, we integrate these insights into every layer of our platform—from AI-driven affiliate selection to dynamic commission setting. The result? Better creators, higher GMV per video, and stronger ROAS across the board.

It’s time to rethink what makes a creator valuable. Because in video shopping, it’s not about popularity. It’s about performance.